As you probably know, the United States is not a direct democracy. Although people vote for candidates, there is a group of intermediaries – the Electoral College – that select the president and vice president of the United States.

Each of the 50 states, along with the District of Columbia, is designated a certain number of electors, proportional to its population. In total, there are 538 electors, so a candidate needs at least 270 electoral electoral votes to win the presidency. Effectively, what we know as the US presidential election is in fact dozens of separate elections.

Strategically, the US can be likened to a huge chess game – and just like in a chess game, there are pieces that must be sacrificed and pawns that must be pushed. This game is played with money. During the last election cycle in 2020, according to OpenSecrets, political spending stood at more than 14bn. Parties must carefully allocate their funds to pull off a successful campaign – it is essential to concentrate campaign efforts on the areas that will make the most significant difference in the election results.

States that regularly lean to a single party are called ‘safe,’ and divided into ‘red’ (meaning that they are likely to vote Republican) or ‘blue’ (meaning likely to vote Democrat).

Jeff Mayo, the third-generation publisher of the Sequoyah County Times, told Harbingers’ Magazine: “Oklahoma is safely Republican, yes. You know, there’s no reason to campaign here.”

On the other hand, a Californian teenager Hannah James nuanced the view that only liberals live in California: “people say that California’s blue. It’s not as blue as most people think it is. It’s really not. There is a very strong Republican, red, base, specifically down south, very strong.”

Nonetheless, there’s little to be gained for the Republican Party by campaigning in California — for the last 32 years, the Golden State has given its 54 electoral votes to a Democratic nominee.

But there’s a group of states where the result is far from certain. ‘Swing states,’ also known as ‘battleground states,’ are those on knife’s edge, so they can be won by either the Republican or Democratic party. This is precisely where money is being spent to turn the tide.

In 2020, there were eight swing states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden won all of those except for Florida and North Carolina, thus securing 306 electoral votes, and the win.

In 2024, the situation looks much bleaker for the Democrats. Biden’s re-election campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, answered Puck News’ question whether if Florida was a battleground state with a straight “no”.

Despite other Democrats insisting that the Sunshine State is in play, Dillon’s statement meant that the previous Biden campaign did not plan to invest significantly in Florida. This meant the main swing states this year would be Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Arizona

Arizona is a South-western state that has 11 electoral votes. Despite voting Republican since 2000, Arizona was narrowly won by Biden in the 2020 election by 0.4%, or roughly 10,500 votes. “Arizona is absolutely, fully purple,” David Byler, elections data expert and chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights told FOX Television Stations.

According to polling right before Biden’s exit, Trump led Biden by 6% including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (48% for Trump, 42% for Biden) and 8% excluding RFK (45% for Trump, 37% for Biden).

Biden had visited Phoenix in late March, and Kamala Harris visited Tucson a month later, where they launched the ‘Latinos con Biden-Harris’ campaign and discussed abortion rights. Trump made a stop on June 6, focusing on immigration and criticizing Biden’s asylum-restricting executive action.

Recent polls indicate that Kamala’s chances of securing the state are much improved with a both candidates standing at an equal 47.1%.

The key issue for voters in the Grand Canyon State was immigration and border security, followed by long-term water supplies and education, then inflation and cost of living close behind.

Georgia

The South-eastern state that has 16 electoral votes is another example of the ‘swing’ nature of these battleground states. Biden’s 0.2% (11,800 votes) advantage made him the first Democratic nominee to win in Georgia in 28 years.

Trump led in the Peach State with 48% to Biden’s 42%.  Against Harris, Trump now leads by just 0.4%

Waning enthusiasm among African-American voters, who were pivotal in the 2020 elections, was a cause of concern for the Democrats back during Biden’s campaign. During a visit on May 19 to give the commencement address for the historically black Morehouse College, the incumbent president was met with peaceful protests and calls to cancel the address because of the handling of the situation in Gaza.

Trump also held a rally in Georgia back in March to campaign heavily against immigration and for stronger border control.

Atlanta was also the site of the 2024 presidential debate, which raised concerns about Biden’s old age and, according to a number of polls, had weakened Biden’s popularity among voters before he was soon replaced by Kamala Harris.

The issue that weighed heaviest on the minds of Georgians was inflation and the cost of living crisis, followed by threats to democracy, immigration, healthcare, abortion, and crime.

Michigan

This upper Midwest state, worth 15 electoral votes, is one of the three ‘blue wall’ states (along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Michigan has historically voted Democrat since 1992, but was won by Trump in 2016. In 2020, Biden edged out Trump by 2.8%, roughly 154,200 votes.

As of July 21, Trump was ahead with 47% to Biden’s 42%. But with Harris now leading the charge, these statistics have shifted as she wields 46.7% compared to Trump’s 45%.

The previous Biden campaign saw multiple visits to Michigan over the past year, such as to Detroit on May 19 in response to signs of shrinking Black voter support. Trump also stopped by Michigan, once in September 2023 and once in May 2024.

Governor of California Gavin Newsom visited South Haven, Michigan, on July 4 to show support for the Democrats, urging the public “not to be fatalistic, not to fall prey to all this negativity.”

The economy was a top concern among almost a third of Great Lakes State voters, followed by immigration, threats to democracy, healthcare, education, crime, and abortion access.

Nevada

Nevada, a Western state worth six electoral votes, has been won six times apiece by Democrats and Republicans since 1976. Last election, Biden emerged victorious by 2.4% (about 33,600 votes). Now the state only slightly swings blue with the Harris campaign leading by just 1.1% in the polls with 47.3% to Trump’s 46.2%.

Trump held a rally in Las Vegas in January, followed by another rally on June 9, where he slammed Biden’s asylum policy and appealed to service workers. “Hotel workers and people that get tips, you’re going to be very happy because when I get to office, we are going to not charge taxes on tips,” Trump said. “We’re going to do that right away, first thing in office.”

The economy was indeed the most important issue for voters of the Silver State, then followed by immigration, education, housing affordability, and healthcare.

North Carolina

North Carolina is a South-eastern state that holds 16 electoral votes. Though it has only chosen two Democratic candidates since the early 1970s, it’s often called ‘purple’ because the margin of victory for Republicans has been smaller in recent elections. Trump won in 2020 by 1.3%, or a little less than 74,500 votes.

Back in July, polls show Biden trailing by 6% (42% to Trump’s 48%). Now Harris has the slight edge over the Republican as she leads by 0.3% (46.3% to Trump’s 46%).

There has been a large divide in the Tar Heel State between Republicans and Democrats on which issues to focus on, with Republicans prioritizing immigration and Democrats highlighting threats to democracy. Overall, immigration was the most important issue, followed by the economy and then preserving democracy.

Pennsylvania

This North-eastern state worth 19 electors clinched the 2020 election for its native son by a margin of 1.2% (80,555 votes). Like the other ‘blue wall’ states, the Keystone State gained its ‘swing state’ status after Donald Trump broke its 24-year Democrat streak in 2016.

Polling showed that Biden was behind Trump 44% to 48% but Harris has closed this gap and now leads 46.4% to Trump’s 45.5%.

In early March, Pennsylvania was the site of Biden’s first speech after his State of the Union address, and he hosted events in late March to commemorate the passing of the Affordable Care Act. In April, Biden returned for a multi-city tour, calling for increased taxes on the wealthy and corporations.

The Kennedy family endorsed Biden at a rally in Philadelphia over their own candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Biden returned to Philly in May, launching an initiative to bolster African-American community outreach.

Trump, on the other hand, spoke in Harrisburg in February at an NRA event, promising to protect Second Amendment rights, stating that “no one will lay a finger on your firearms” if he is re-elected. In April, Trump labelled the judge presiding over his hush-money case as “corrupt” at a rally in Schnecksville.

Now, Pennsylvania most recently laid the scene for the newest presidential debate with Harris now pursuing ‘more aggressive’ post-debate campaigning within the state.

The top issue in Pennsylvania was the economy, Behind that was protecting democracy and then immigration and abortion.

Wisconsin

Rounding out the ‘blue wall’ is Wisconsin, an upper Midwest state worth ten electoral votes. In 2016, Trump snagged the first Republican victory since 1984, making Wisconsin a new battleground state. In 2020, Biden won the Badger State by 0.7%, or 20,700 votes.

Biden was trailing Trump by 4% (44% to 48%) back in July but now Harris leads by 2.7% (48.7% to Trump’s 46%).

Biden, seeking to hold tight to the ‘blue wall,’ visited several times in 2023 and 2024. In January of this year, he spoke at a bridge linking Wisconsin and Minnesota to promote his infrastructure efforts. He visited Milwaukee on March 13, Madison on April 8, and Racine on May 8, where he discussed transportation projects, student debt relief, and Microsoft’s new data center. Most recently, on July 5, Biden held a rally in Madison, where he pledged to continue his re-election bid.

Trump held a rally in Green Bay on April 2, then went to Wakeusha during May, followed by another rally in Racine on June 18. Immigration, the ‘rigged’ 2020 election, and the economy were the main focuses of his speeches.

The economy was a concern for nearly a third of voters in Wisconsin, followed by threats to democracy, immigration, health care, education, housing affordability, crime, and abortion access.

Verdict:

Politico previously outlined a possible path to victory for the Democrats: if they win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and four electoral votes from Maine and Nebraska (which award some electoral votes based on each congressional district), the party would not need any of the southern or western states to win the election.

However with the Harris campaign making a surprising comeback in polls the race is closer and more heated than ever.

Additionally, there’s a huge number of non-voters that have the power to determine the winner in these tight matches. The New York Times states that in 2016, 100mn eligible voters did not vote, and in 2020, 80mn did not vote.

As November approaches it could be anyone’s game.