After ten years, Justin Trudeau’s leadership of Canada is coming to an end. Elected as leader of the Liberal Party in 2013, Trudeau won the 2015, 2019 and 2021 general elections. Although his popularity has fluctuated since 2015, his disapproval rating soared to 74% last December, mainly due to the cost of living crisis. 

In early January, he announced his resignation as the leader of the Liberal Party and as prime minister. The winner of the party’s leadership contest – to be decided on 9 March – will take over both jobs and lead the country into the general election, scheduled for just a few months later, in October.

But does Trudeau’s resignation mean the end of Liberal control of Canada?

Currently, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is ahead in the polls, at around 39%, with the Liberal Party on 29%. Other parties, such as the New Democrat (15%) and Bloc Québécois (around 8%), are in play, but it is very unlikely that they will get the necessary majority to form the next government. 

However, in recent weeks the Conservative Party’s lead has been declining (in mid January they were polling at over 46%) and the Liberal Party has been growing more popular. That’s because of one important change: Donald Trump. The new American president’s bullying attitude to the US’s northern neighbour, from the threat of tariffs to claiming he wants to take over Canada, calling it “not viable as a country”, have provoked both fear and outrage.

Mark Carney

Mark Carney, 59, has vast experience in economic fields. During the 2008 financial crisis, the former governor of the Bank of Canada helped navigate Canada’s economy – it was the only G7 country that did not spend any taxpayer money bailing banks out. 

In 2013, he became the first non-British governor of the Bank of England in its 300-year history, and in 2019, he began serving as the UN special envoy for climate action and finance, with the aim of building stronger economies in the fight against climate change. 

He notes, “I’ve helped manage multiple crises, and I’ve helped save two economies.” On his hope for helping Canada, Carney explains, “I know how business works, and I know how to make it work for you.” For those that see Canada’s economy as a big weak side, Carney may be a top choice.

Thus far, Carney has received cabinet endorsements from multiple people including environment minister Steven Guilbeault and foreign affairs minister Melanie Joly.

Chrystia Freeland

Former deputy PM Chrystia Freeland hit the news last December when she resigned from Trudeau’s cabinet, a sign that his own resignation was near. Freeland and Trudeau had different responses to President Trump’s threat of tariffs and to other financial policies. For example, Freeland reversed Trudeau’s proposal to give $250 to Canadians earning less than $150,00.

Freeland was elected to the Canadian parliament in 2013, after 20 years in journalism. In 2015, she became minister of international trade and helped Canada renegotiate a free trade deal between Canada, the US and Mexico. In 2019, Freeland was appointed deputy prime minister and, in 2020, Trudeau added minister of finance to her roles. 

According to the Fraser Institute, Trudeau government spending is on track to cause the five highest years of per-person debt in Canadian history. Even though this has occurred under the watch of Freeland’s watch, in her letter of resignation she said that the government should be “eschewing costly political gimmicks”. 

In 2022, she stated that “a government with a real muscular industrial policy” was needed in order to accommodate conditions caused by Ukraine’s invasion by Russia, the rise of China and a post-Covid economy. 

It’s clear that Trump is not a fan. He posted on Truth Social, “The Great State of Canada is stunned as the Finance Minister resigns, or was fired, from her position by Governor Justin Trudeau… Her behavior was totally toxic, and not at all conducive to making deals which are good for the very unhappy citizens of Canada. She will not be missed!!!”

Pierre Poilievre

Pierre Poilievre, 45, has been the leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. In many ways, Poilievre can be compared to President Trump in his policies and rhetoric. He denounces “wokeism” and asserts that he will do “the biggest crackdown on crime in Canadian history.”

He also said: “We’re going to cut bureaucracy, cut the consultants, cut foreign aid, cut back on corporate welfare to large corporations.” 

This pledge is, of course, reminiscent of Trump’s new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk. DOGE’s aim, according to Musk, is to cut wasteful, fraudulent and excessive government spending, but its actions so far have been very controversial. Musk has shown support for Poilievre by reposting tweets and applauding his speeches. 

In an interview with the right-wing influencer Jordan Peterson, Poilievre said that he seeks to strike a “great deal” with the US president in order to “make both countries safer, richer, and stronger”. He intends to do this by increasing Canada’s oil and gas exports to the US. 

Despite the similarities between the two politicians, they do have different viewpoints on immigration, with Poilievre being pro-immigration and vowing that integrating Canada as a 51st US state would “never happen”.

The problem for Poilievre is that his support is waning. As a Conservative source noted: “It’s harder to talk about a broken Canada when there’s a growing sense of patriotism.”

Also, he will have a new rival to defeat in the general election. According to a poll in early February, when asked who would do the best job at negotiating with President Trump, 40% of respondents answered Mark Carney and only 26% said Pierre Poilievre. 

Poilievre has rebranded his campaign to celebrate Canada rather than to continue to critique it. This was seen at his “Canada First” rally in mid February, in which he seemed to be proudly supporting Flag Day. By standing with the flag, Polievre is trying to correct his mistakes. But, if he is not able to reverse the drop in popularity, the Liberals now have a fighting chance to remain in power.