Donald Trump’s election as the 47th president of the United States has significant implications for the state of reproductive rights in the US and around the world.

Given Trump’s notoriously inconsistent statements over the years on abortion and broader reproductive rights, it is difficult to create a full and accurate analysis of what might happen once he is in office.

In 1999, on NBC, he declared himself to be “very pro-choice”. In 2011, in a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference, he stated simply: “I am pro-life.”

During his first term, he appointed three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, who were crucial to the overturning in 2022 of the landmark ruling in Roe vs Wade, thereby ending the federal right to abortion in the US. “I did it. And I’m proud to have done it,” said Trump on Fox News.

In March last year, he suggested in a radio interview that he would support a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. But seven months later, in October, he took to social media to say that he would veto a national ban if it was to land on his desk.

Currently, as a result of the repeal of Roe vs Wade, there is no federal legislation to protect (or deny) abortion, meaning that is up to the individual states. This has led to a patchwork of laws across the country.

Twelve states hold near-total bans on abortion at all periods of gestation, with no exceptions for rape or incest. A further 29 states have restrictions based on foetal development, with cut-offs ranging from six to 24 weeks. Nine states plus the District of Columbia have no gestational bans. A national ban would overrule states’ rights, restricting or further restricting the right to abortion in many states.

One possible indicator of what might happen comes in Project 2025, a 900-page policy document detailing a vision of a new, radically conservative America. It was launched in April 2023 by a longstanding right-wing think tank, the Heritage Foundation, with input from more than 100 conservative organisations, with the aim of guiding a future Republican presidency.

This “mandate for leadership” mentions the word ‘abortion’ 199 times. The foreword professes the necessity of “deleting the terms… abortion, reproductive health, [and] reproductive rights… out of every federal rule, agency regulation, contract, grant, regulation, and piece of legislation that exists.”

The document goes on to detail plans to severely restrict or eliminate abortion – both surgical and medical (via pills) – in American life. While some sections are left vague and provide little more than an ideological goal, others clearly imply or make direct reference to specific legislative changes.

The relationship between Trump and Project 2025 has been fraught. Key authors of the plan, such as Russell Vought and Tom Homan, served as his top advisers during his first term in office, and will continue to hold some positions of influence in his second. But he also attempted to distance himself from Project 25 as controversy around it grew in the lead-up to the 2024 election.

However, the ideas professed in the document appear deeply intertwined with the Republican Party, and many of its key players (including the Heritage Foundation and the Leadership Institute) have been important donors to his campaign.

It is highly likely that we will see increased restrictions on abortion services, including medical abortions. There will also be increased levels of misinformation and fearmongering around reproductive health. However, we can equally expect opposition and action from pro-abortion legal and community groups.