Pola Gudowicz and Maja Dobrosielska, both 16, explain how the US is affecting candidates’ chances
US secretary of defense Pete Hegseth (right) meets Polish president Andrzej Duda at the presidential palace in Warsaw, February 2025.
April 25, 2025
The ‘Trump effect’? How US politics impact the Polish presidential elections
When Donald Trump won the US presidential election in 2024, politicians from Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party applauded the Republican candidate’s victory during a Sejm session, with many of them loudly chanting Trump’s name. Some even called for the head of the Polish government, Donald Tusk, from the centrist-left Civic Platform (PO) party, to step down.
Much has changed over the last six months.
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Originally, it seemed that in Poland’s own presidential election it would be Law and Justice that would benefit the most from Trump’s victory, but in recent weeks the situation has changed drastically.
The frontrunner remains Rafał Trzaskowski of Civic Platform. A month ago it was suggestedthat Sławomir Menzten from the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja) was likely to surpass Law and Justice’s Karol Nawrocki, eventually becoming the main opponent to Trzaskowski in the second round of voting, on 1 June.
However, according to the latest polls,Karol Nawrocki remains in second place with 24.9% support, well ahead of Mentzen on 12.9%. Trzaskowski is still out in front, but his support has dropped to 30.4%.
The question is, how is this connected to the US’s head of state, if at all?
Response to Trump’s win
Poland’s president Andrzej Duda, from PiS, has always been a firm supporter of Donald Trump, but prime minister Donald Tusk’s viewpoint has changed. He was once critical of Trump’s policies, but after the latter’s victory, his opinion shifted towards a more softened stance, in order to maintain strong ties with the US.
In fact, it wasn’t only the Polish prime minister who changed his attitude; the whole world started to gravitate towards more rightist ideas. This shows how one person or one nation, if powerful enough, can impact the global political scene.
Poland (hard though it is to admit it) is a nation severely dependent on the United States. This is for reasons connected to the economy, as well as to the military and defence. The country simply isn’t a big enough player to completely oppose Trump’s agenda.
Moreover, in the decades after World War II, the US remained a dreamland for Poles. It is estimated that around ten million people in the US have Polish roots, and it is home to the largest number of Poles outside Poland. Around half of them voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Who will gain traction?
One could ask, why isn’t Nawrocki gaining support in such a scenario? Although the world is undergoing a shift to the right, as a result of Donald Trump election as president, in Poland the situation is different.
For Poles, right-wing views aren’t a new experience; after all, the conservative Law and Justice party was in power for almost nine years, from 2015 to 2023. For Americans, Trump was supposed to be a change after four years of Joe Biden, a left-leaning Democratic president.
This explains why it is Trzaskowski (centrist-left) and Mentzen (far-right) who are gaining traction in Poland: they represent change, albeit in opposite directions.
This is why the majority of Polish citizens believe these two candidates provide the chance of a breakthrough and a new beginning.
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