Some polls already place Mentzen second,but in most he is third and closing the gapwith the populist conservative Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by the Law and Justice (PiS) party that ruled Poland until 2023 and from where outgoing president Andrzej Duda originated.

That would be a seismic shift, as (unlike Law and Justice) Mentzen has called for Poland to terminate economic sanctionsagainst Russia and come to an agreementwith President Putin to end the war in Ukraine. He has also accused Ukrainians living in Poland of taking advantage of the country. 

“We send Ukraine weapons, money, social benefits, we treat the Ukrainians in Poland for free. In return we are slandered, abused, they do not show any gratitude. It is not partnership, they take us for suckers,” he argued. In his opinion, Poland should have made support for Ukraine conditional on Kyiv meeting certain demands.

This is not the only divisive and controversial statement made by Slawomir Mentzen. In 2019, he caused outrage by stating that Confederation’s manifesto is based on five principles: “We don’t want Jews, homosexuals, abortion, taxes and the European Union.” He later falsely claimedthat his words were misrepresented or that he was not serious.

Similarly, he faced criticism for his “Mentzen’s 100 bills” project in 2023, which included the legalisation of corporal punishment; up to ten years in prison for women who terminate a pregnancy; and the removal of penalties for hate speech. “This is prehistoric. I try to reach voters with low and simple taxes, and people want to talk about something that is not even present in my agenda,” Mentzen retorted.

In the 20-point manifesto,he promises to act against further integration of the European Union (especially the Green Deal);increase investments in the Polish military (which is “never” to be deployed to Ukraine, but is to help seal the borders against “waves of illegal migrants”); reduce bureaucracy; and lower and simplify taxes. He also promises to improve the country’s infrastructure, education, healthcare, judiciary and energy independence. 

These are complemented by vows to “stop the ideology of the left”, and support for Polish agriculture, cryptocurrency, cash transactions and the use of cars in city centres.

Mentzen’s popularity appears to be driven not by the actual content of his programme, but by populist criticismof the political establishment. This resonates with conservative voters, who have shifted to Confederation and Mentzen from Law and Justice and its candidate, historian Karol Nawrocki.

Polls indicate that Mentzen is unlikely to win against Rafał Trzaskowski in the second round. However, if he manages to best Nawrocki, it will cement the position of far-right nationalists in Poland and threaten the position of Law and Justice, which has dominated the right wing of Polish politics for almost two decades.