For many, the only thing that comes to mind when they hear the name of Rafał Trzaskowski, is that he is the mayor of Warsaw. Becoming the mayor of Poland’s capital in 2018 has been the crowning achievement of his career so far, but in May, he will yet again attempt to win the highest office and become the next president of Poland.

Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, is a long-standing politician from the liberal Civic Platform (PO) party. He is well educated, having completed three degrees: in International Relations, English and European Studies. He studied in Australia and the United States for some time, which helped him become a polyglot who speaks five languages: English, French, Italian, Russian and Spanish. In the past, he also worked as an English teacher and a simultaneous interpreter.

His political journey began in 2000 when he took the position of an adviser to the Committee for European Integration. Nine years later, he was elected to the European Parliament. In the following years, Trzaskowski served as a minister in Donald Tusk’s government and an MP in the Polish Sejm. In 2018, he was elected mayor of Warsaw, securing the majority of the vote (56.7%) in the first round.

In 2020, Trzaskowski made his first attempt at moving to Belvedere, the Polish equivalent of the White House. He made it to the second round, narrowly losing to the incumbent, Andrzej Duda, 48.8% to 51.2%, by less than half a million votes. In the upcoming election, he will face different opponents – Duda, having completed two terms as president, is not allowed to run again.

The early stages of Trzaskowski’s election campaign were marked by attempts to reach as many voters as possible, which raised questions about the coherency of his views. PO’s candidate tried to mix narratives appealing to both the right and the left. This strategy may seem logical for a centrist politician, but in practice proved to be difficult, and resulted in confusion.

In an interview with the Polish daily Rzeczpospolita, Trzaskowski criticised aspects of the European Union’s policies on environment (Green Deal) and migration. “The [EU] is making dozens of mistakes,” he said, which sounded slightly harsh coming from a former MEP, who has been one of the most vocal enthusiasts of the EU and Poland’s membership of the bloc.

Commentators started listing the changes in his views and accused him of incoherence and shifting positions to attract a Eurosceptic electorate. Although Trzaskowski tried to brush off the criticism – “I don’t change my mind, I draw clear conclusions” – some expressed concerns that he is focusing too much on being recognisable and not enough on improving his campaign.

Harbingers’ Magazine tested Trzaskowski’s image by interviewing Polish citizens in Warsaw. Twelve out of fifteen people interviewed told us they were not interested in politics and had no knowledge of Trzaskowski’s current activities – something his campaign must attempt to change.

Despite these difficulties, Trzaskowski leads the polls before the first round of voting, scheduled for 18 May. One of the most recent polls, conducted by CBOS, gave him 35% and a clear lead over two right-wing candidates, Karol Nawrocki (PiS) and Sławomir Mentzen (Konfederacja), on 23% and 21%, respectively. In December, in a poll by United Surveys for online outlet Wirtualna Polska, Trzaskowski’s support stood at 38.2%, dropping to 36.2% within a month.

However, Nawrocki and Mentzen can expect that, in the second round, their votes will be largely transferred between them, one way or the other, while Trzaskowski can only expect a very limited boost from the likes of Szymon Hołownia (currently on 5%) or Magdalena Biejat (2%).

Her comment points to the fact that, to win, Trzaskowski will have to gain some of the votes of the far-right, something that numerous Polish politicians have attempted – unsuccessfully. Such a move could result in him losing the votes of liberal and left-wing voters while not actually taking votes from his right-wing opponents.

This happened during the 2024 US elections, where Democrat vice-president Kamala Harris seemed to be in the lead, yet lost in a landslide to the Republican former president Donald Trump. She attempted to persuade some moderate right-wing voters to vote for her, but this failed – a longstanding Democrat from California, Harris appeared “fake” to conservatives and her bid lacked a strong foundation. The attempt backfired: on 5 November, liberal and left-wing voters stayed at home.

Similar patterns are visible in Trzaskowski’s campaign. He has an established image as a liberal who has advocated for the deeper integration of Europe, supported the liberalisation of restrictive abortion rights and was concerned about the environment.

Suddenly, the same politician started proposing stricter rules for Ukrainian refugees’ access to welfare programmes (arguably to attract right-wing voters concerned with the number of refugees and migrants from Ukraine), supports farmers concerned with EU’s Green Deal project (one of the most conservative voter groups in the country) and says that Poland “should spend 5% of GDP on defence and security by 2026”.

The question is whether Trzaskowski will be able to keep the balance, winning votes from his opponents while not alienating liberal and left-leaning voters. The question is whether Trzaskowski can deliver without turning himself into a phony candidate. His victory certainly would be a massive boost to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who is currently in deep conflict with the outgoing president Andrzej Duda.